The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine stands as one of the most prestigious accolades in the scientific community, recognizing groundbreaking contributions that have reshaped our understanding of life and health. As we look ahead to 2025, speculation is mounting about which researchers might be honored for their transformative work. Often referred to as the "Nobel风向标" (Nobel barometer), certain scientists and discoveries emerge as frontrunners based on their impact, citations, and prior recognition. Here, we explore five leading contenders whose work could potentially earn them the 2025 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine.

The field of mRNA vaccine technology continues to dominate discussions, even after the 2023 Nobel Prize honored Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman for their foundational contributions. However, other key figures in this revolution, such as Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci, the husband-and-wife duo behind BioNTech, remain strong candidates. Their rapid development of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine demonstrated the real-world potential of mRNA platforms. If the Nobel Committee decides to further recognize this field, Sahin and Türeci’s translational achievements—bridging basic science with global public health impact—could make them prime laureates.

Another area of intense interest is CRISPR gene editing. While Emmanuelle Charpentier and Jennifer Doudna received the 2020 Nobel for their discovery of CRISPR-Cas9, the technology’s therapeutic applications are now coming to fruition. Scientists like Feng Zhang, who played a pivotal role in adapting CRISPR for use in mammalian cells, or Virginijus Šikšnys, whose independent work on CRISPR mechanisms was equally critical, may soon join the ranks of Nobel laureates. With CRISPR-based therapies now entering clinical trials for conditions like sickle cell anemia, the committee may opt to honor those who turned a revolutionary tool into a medical reality.

In the realm of cancer immunotherapy, researchers who expanded the potential of checkpoint inhibitors beyond PD-1 and CTLA-4 are gaining attention. Arlene Sharpe and Gordon Freeman, whose work elucidated additional immune checkpoints like LAG-3 and TIM-3, have opened new avenues for treating resistant cancers. Their discoveries are now the basis for next-generation immunotherapies, and their cumulative contributions could position them as Nobel-worthy. The committee has a history of awarding cancer immunotherapy in stages, as seen with James Allison and Tasuku Honjo in 2018, making Sharpe and Freeman plausible successors.

Neuroscience also presents compelling candidates, particularly in the study of neurodegenerative diseases. Virginia Man-Yee Lee has made seminal discoveries about the role of protein aggregates—such as tau and TDP-43—in Alzheimer’s and ALS. Her work has redefined how we understand these conditions, shifting the focus toward targeted protein-clearing therapies. Given the global burden of neurodegeneration and the lack of effective treatments, the Nobel Committee may find Lee’s research especially timely. Similarly, Michel Goedert, who pioneered the classification of tauopathies, could share the honor for his parallel contributions.

Finally, the microbiome revolution has unearthed a new frontier in medicine, linking gut bacteria to everything from metabolism to mental health. Jeffrey Gordon, often called the "father of the microbiome," demonstrated how gut microbes influence obesity and malnutrition. His team’s fecal transplant experiments revealed the microbiome’s causal role in health, paving the way for microbial therapeutics. As microbiome-based treatments enter clinical practice, Gordon’s decades of foundational work may finally earn Nobel recognition.

Predicting Nobel Prizes is always fraught with uncertainty, but these five areas—mRNA vaccines, CRISPR therapeutics, cancer immunotherapy, neurodegeneration, and the microbiome—represent the vanguard of medical science today. Whether the 2025 prize honors one of these fields or an unexpected breakthrough, the selected work will undoubtedly reflect science’s power to confront humanity’s greatest health challenges. The "Nobel风向标" points not just to individual brilliance, but to the collective progress that defines modern medicine.